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How did Armenia go back 30 years after the war?

Nurlan Huseinov

How did Armenia go back 30 years, 30 years after the war? Unfortunately, this is what happened.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Armenians were able to implement the Karabakh plan, which they had plotted during the Soviet period, albeit incompletely. Why incomplete? Because the plan included not only Karabakh, but also Nakhchivan. During the Soviet period, they worked hard towards this goal and were more prepared for the war; thus, they won the war and occupied Karabakh. After this, two main ideological mottos were launched, which constantly nurtured the Armenian national identity: Turkey ("genocide") and Azerbaijan (Karabakh).

Seeing Turkey and Azerbaijan as a threat quickly directed Armenia towards Russia in search of security. However, the next stage of relations with Russia, which was due to security reasons, was extremely fatal for the Armenians. The Armenian national consciousness, which posed Turkey and Azerbaijan as an imaginary existential threat to the Armenian identity, gradually faced a real existential threat in its relations with Russia during the years of occupation.

Armenia, which was under blockade after the occupation of Karabakh and had no resources, found itself in a tough situation during the difficult first years of independence. It was a real opportunity for Russia in such a situation to seize Armenia.

During these years, Russia took over Armenia, by benefitting from the consequences of the aggressive nationalism of Armenians, at such a level that when they started seeing the real threat, it was too late for Armenians. Russia lends money to Armenia, sells gas and ammunition with cheap credit, provides military and political support, thus increasing Armenia's dependence on mutual relations, and Russia’s authority in Armenia.

In 2000, Russia acquired Armenian hydro power stations, provided financing for the Metsamor nuclear power plant, the Hrazdan thermal power plant, electronics and cement plants in exchange for the gas debts that Armenia could not pay and for the discounts on new gas prices.

Such increasing dependence Russia forced then-President Kocharyan to agree on all the terms offered by Russia. During the years of occupation of Azerbaijani territories, Russia took over almost all the strategic areas in Armenia.

Russia obtained major shares in the country's energy sector, electricity distribution network, telecommunications, banking sector, and extractive industries.

In 2006, a gas pipeline was built between Iran and Armenia. The pipeline was designed to diversify Armenian gas market which was dominated by Russia. However, as a result of Russia’s pressure, the thickness of the gas pipeline was halved to 700 mm, which in turn nullified the importance of the pipeline. However, the initial goal was to transport Iranian natural gas to major markets through Armenia.

In addition, Russia through Gazprom Armenia, a subsidiary of the Russian Gazprom Company, took over natural gas pipeline coming from Iran, and Armenia’s natural gas distribution networks.

This company itself was a former Armenian-Russian joint venture (ArmRosGazprom), then Russia acquired all the shares and the company became Gazprom Armenia. All this happened in an exchange for some financing for buying weapons and for subsidies to buy natural gas.

In 2008, Armenian Railways joined Russia’s South Caucasus Railway owned by Russian Railways.

Economic and political dependence was growing, and eventually bringing more strategic gains for Russia. As a result, Armenia’s security and military areas became regional branches of Russian central authorities.

There are two Russian military bases in Armenia, and the Russian army guards two borders of Armenia. Armenia's airspace is also jointly protected by Russia.

Karabakh fighter Kocharyan completed 10 years of service and then handed the power to another Karabakh fighter Sargsyan after killing civilians in protests in Yerevan in 2008. In the post-election protests, Karabagh fighters ordered to open fire on people, killing eight civilians and two police officers.

Thus, Kocharyan handed over Sargsyan a power that he cannot do anything but perform his formal presidency.  Therefore, the process continued during Sargsyan’s presidency and Armenia's vassalage for Russia became even stronger.

According to the agreement signed between the two countries in 2010, the Russian military bases were allowed to stay in Armenia until 2044.

Armenia is also a member of the Russian-led military and economic organizations - the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union. Especially on the eve of the signing of the Association Agreement with the European Union, the country was forced to join EEU under pressure after Putin's meeting with Sargsyan.

Membership in these organizations was also an additional military and economic tool to bind Armenia to Russia, and the commitments undertaken in the membership agreement limit Armenia's independent economic and military decision-making power. That is why the Association Agreement between Armenia and the European Union is weak compared to the agreement signed between Georgia and the European Union and does not cover extensive trade relations.

But who handed over the country to Russia this much? Karabakh war fighters, separatists, Dashnaks, Kocharyan and then Sargsyan. The "heroes" of Karabakh who ruled Armenia for 20 years.

The tragedy is how these people came to power in Armenia. Karabakh's militarists used nationalist psychosis to force then-President Levon Ter-Petrosyan to resign in the late 1990s and come to power in Armenia. For the next 20 years, they instilled their military doctrines into the whole society.

What was the reason for overthrowing Petrosyan? His desire for peace. Petrosyan was the first person to see the reality facing Armenia today.

Immediately after the war, he was able to assess the situation correctly. He told Armenians that after some time, they would not be able to justify the fact of occupation in the modern world and it would not be possible to annex Karabakh to Armenia. On the other side, he said Azerbaijan would become richer using its natural resources, its military and economic power would increase, and Armenia would miss those opportunities. He understood it was not possible to exist economically in blockade.  Therefore, it was necessary to return Karabakh peacefully. Petrosyan worked hard to bring Armenians to their senses, saying that some forces in the country were working for Russian special services. He shut down the Dashnak party and their means of media and kept them away from elections. But he lost to dogmatic nationalism and militarists and surrendered the power. Later on everything else happened as he had said.

In an interview to BBC after his resignation, Petrosyan said that they did not expect that to happen that way. He said they thought that there had been some other precedents during the Soviet period where some territories of the Soviet countries were transferred from one party to another by the order of the central government.

After Petrosyan, all attempts of peace and reconciliation were smashed by the nature of the Armenian nationalism.

The first peace attempt resulted in the overthrow of Petrosyan himself.

In 1999, negotiations between Kocharyan and Heydar Aliyev were the second attempt for peace. The peace talks were chaired by US Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott. In 1999, Talbott completed his visit to Azerbaijan and went to Armenia from where he planned a visit to Turkey. Two hours after leaving Armenia, parliament of Armenia was attacked by terrorists. As a result of the attack, eight people, including key figures from Armenian political circles, the opponent of the Karabakh military clan and supporters of peace, including Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsyan and Parliament Speaker Karen Demirchyan were killed.

Peace had been terrorized next time after the April 2016 clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, when Sargsyan began peace talks. A police department in Yerevan was captured by the anti-peace group Sasna Tsrer. As a result of this incident two police officers were killed.

In the course and as a result of this process, Russia-Armenia relations, although it is called a strategic partnership among people, have become a vassalage relationship, as noted by experts studying the region. The occupation of Karabakh and its consequences resulted in Russia's absorption of Armenia in economic, political and military sense.

Russia's plan to create a state in the post-Soviet region with the help of puppet organizations through armed fighters worked in contrary in Armenia. Armenia itself became a puppet state with the help of the militants in Karabakh. In this sense, the future of those living in the eastern part of Ukraine who shout “Krim nash” (Crimea is ours), is as blurry as of those living in Armenia who say Karabakh is Armenian.

Results of Armenia's 30-year long occupation and their politics of creating a "second republic" obviously shows that it is completely insane. What has been achieved during those years?

There is no such nation in the world that would waste its own legitimate and internationally recognized state with a large territory for the sake of a “second republic”, which is not only recognized by other countries, but also by Armenia itself, and that is situated on the occupied and ruined lands. The only thing they have gained in the history of modern Armenia is the puppet "2nd Republic" at the expense of turning the 1st Republic into a grey zone.

When Pashinyan came to power after the revolution, he “turned the pages” of the government documents and realized that he had nothing but Russian-run establishments, a militarized society of 20 years old militaristic psychosis, and a chauvinist diaspora living abroad without knowing the reality of Armenia, but flaring the occupation.

The inauguration ceremony of the puppet president of the puppet republic was recently held in Shusha. The table at which the Armenian leadership and the Nagorno-Karabakh terrorists gathered was very symbolic. That pickled garlic and vodka on table showed the essence and meaning of Armenian politics, statehood, thinking and "a second republic" talks for the last three decades.

Russia has done its job there; in addition to the foreign lands that Armenia must return back according to international law, it also has an Armenia, which need to be taken back from Russia. However, the relations between the two countries have reached a point where it is simply impossible to reverse this situation. Even the return of Karabakh to Azerbaijan will hardly change the situation.

Armenia has become not only an aggressor, a state that has lost everything due to the occupation, but also Russia’s tool in reaching its goals, as the world's largest aggressor and destabilizer, an obstacle in the region’s development and democratization. With the occupation of Karabakh, Armenia prevented not only Azerbaijan, but also the entire region from development and progress. The unrecoverable damage from the occupation hit Armenia itself the most. The occupation of Karabakh is a knot in the integration and progress of the South Caucasus and establishment of peace in the region. All peace efforts are being terrorized.

Unlike other countries that after the collapse of the Soviet Union sought independence and tried to distance themselves from Russia in order to maintain their sovereignty, Armenia returned to where it started 30 years ago.

For the 30 years, Azerbaijani side had been offering to Armenian side coexistence and peace, and highest autonomy within the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Armenian side chose to live all alone in the blockade with the help of artillery by expelling Azerbaijanis from the occupied territories, and carried out ethnic cleansing for 30 years.

They saw the future of themselves and their children in bunkers where they could hide, if there was a danger. They turned every inch of our neighbourhood and lands of coexistence into a military desert between the two countries.

During these years, Armenians terrorized not only Azerbaijani, but also the idea of peace itself, and every Armenian who spoke about peace. Unfortunately, this is what happened ...

Considering all this, one feels sorry for Armenians, they often make you laugh, and also it is difficult not to hate them. One unequivocally feels sorry for what they have experienced. At the same time, they look ridiculous when their claims and reality do not match and that they do not accept the tragic consequences themselves. It is also hard not to hate them for what they have caused for both sides, for the region and for the mankind.

And the point that has been reached to is what is happening today.