The Mahsa Amini protest movement has likely entered a new phase, according to the US Institute for the Study of War, although it remains unclear what form of anti-regime activity will characterize this phase. Protest activity has surged in recent days, with at least 15 protests taking place on February 16, 12 on February 19, 14 on February 20, and seven on February 21. This increase in turnout is the highest that CTP has recorded since assessing that the Mahsa Amini movement reached its climax in January 2023. However, it is unclear how long this surge in protest activity will last.

The Washington Post reported on February 19 that protesters in Saghez, Kurdistan Province, the birthplace of Mahsa Amini and a site of significant anti-regime activity in recent months, are gearing up for further unrest. Protesters reportedly stated that the regime has failed to address their grievances and that they have begun stockpiling materials to fight security forces, including Molotov cocktails.

The US Institute for the Study of War noted that Iran is grappling with severe economic issues, which could lead to increased political attacks against President Ebrahim Raisi and his administration. "Numerous regime officials have expressed growing alarm over the economic situation in recent days as well," the ISW said.