In recent days, more and more alarming reports have been heard regarding the situation around that part of Nagorno-Karabakh, which, after the 44-day war, came under the control of the Russian peacekeeping contingent(RPC). Over the past week, or even more, the Azerbaijani side has been regularly reporting provocations from the Armenian illegal armed groups (IAF) stationed there. Usually, these reports of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Azerbaijan say that such sorties are suppressed by return fire.

Today, as the “Maiden Tower” Telegram channel reports, the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan announced new shelling of its positions by Armenian illegal armed groups.

“Starting from the afternoon of March 8 to the morning of March 9, members of the illegal Armenian armed detachments in the territory of Azerbaijan, where the Russian peacekeepers are temporarily stationed, using various caliber weapons periodically subjected to fire the positions of the Azerbaijan Army in Khojaly and Goranboy regions. Adequate response measures were taken by the units of the Azerbaijan Army stationed in these directions.

Currently, the situation in these directions is stable, the Azerbaijan Army Units completely control the operational situation.

We state that the Azerbaijan Army does not target civilian infrastructure, but only opens fire at the positions of the illegal Armenian armed detachments.”

In turn, the Armenian media, with reference to the separatists of the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, declare that the Azerbaijani Armed Forces shelled the positions of the illegal armed formations of Armenians near the village of Khanoba in the Khojavend region of Azerbaijan.

In the afternoon, the Telegram channel “Caucasian Bureau” reported that an intense exchange of fire took place between Azerbaijani and Armenian military personnel on the border of Armenia and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Armenian media reported about one dead soldier of the Republic of Armenia.

Then the Armenian Ministry of Defense confirmed the death of its sergeant, and reported that another person was injured.

After that, a message came that Zakir Hasanov, the Minister of Defense of Azerbaijan, at a meeting of the leadership of the army, instructed "to immediately respond to possible provocations against Azerbaijani units."

In addition, the Armenian Defense Ministry announced the shelling of its positions by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces.

“On March 9, at about 13:10, the Azerbaijani armed forces opened fire on the Armenian military positions located in the western part of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The enemy fire was suppressed as a result of the response actions of the Armenian side. Since 15.00 the situation in this part of the border is relatively stable.”

This is with regard to the skirmishes, which, as noted above, have been going on for more than a day, although it was on the last day that their intensity for some reason increased greatly.

But there is another disturbing message. This morning, a convoy of Russian vehicles with personnel left Khankendi along the Lachin corridor. The video is already circulating on the web.

According to incoming information, the RPC is withdrawing part of its forces from the zone of its temporary responsibility in Karabakh, for further transfer to Ukraine. This was reported by the Telegram channel “Bez Masok".

Another Telegram channel - Caliber - adds to this that the departure of a large convoy of the RF Armed Forces from Khankendi along the Lachin corridor is a fact. There is also information (these are no longer facts, but assumptions) that they will be transferred to Ukraine. According to another version, part of the RPC servicemen will be transferred to the 102nd base in Gyumri, and the Gyumri`s themselves will be sent to help the Russian army in Ukraine. “We know for sure that this is not the usual rotation of the composition,” the channel writes.

The “Maiden Tower” also shares its analysis of this movement of troops.

“Against the background of the aggravation of the situation in the zone of temporary responsibility of the RPC in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, when almost every day there is news about shootings, this video can be interpreted in different ways.

It is unlikely that this is the withdrawal of peacekeepers for transfer to Ukraine. The contingent is 1960 military personnel. Not the right figure for strengthening the Armed Forces in Ukraine.

There are several options for what happens.

1. After the meeting between Aliyev and Putin in Moscow on February 23, at which an allied declaration was signed, Aliyev also stated that the withdrawal of the Armenian Armed Forces from the territory of Azerbaijan should be carried out in full. It is possible that natives of Armenia, who are illegally serving in the zone of temporary responsibility of the RPC in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, are taken out in trucks in the video. They are going to leave only the natives of the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan at the posts of the separatists.
2. There is a rotation of the peacekeeping contingent of Russia. Some soldiers are taken away, others are brought in.
3. There is a variant of the illegal rotation of Armenian troops under the cover of the RPC. This option cannot be ruled out, since RPC, unfortunately, has long been discredited for Azerbaijan. Everyone who follows the situation in the region knows what I am talking about. There are a lot of examples, starting with the Lachin “hole”, ending with making advances to the separatists.
4. Again, returning to the union declaration of Russia and Azerbaijan, one cannot exclude the option of agreements. Baku is dissatisfied with Armenia's failure to fulfill the conditions of the tripartite statement, the guarantor of which is Russia. First of all, this concerns paragraph 4 of the statement, according to which absolutely all Armenian armed forces must be withdrawn from the territory of Azerbaijan.

In general, there is a possibility that the Azerbaijani Armed Forces will conduct an anti-terrorist operation in the zone of responsibility of peacekeepers to clean up the country's territory from Armenian illegal armed groups.”

After that, the “Bakinskiy Nord” Telegram channel spread the news that the Cabinet of Ministers of Azerbaijan had sent a letter to a number of organizations, as well as foreign government agencies, in connection with attempts to use the Lachin corridor for military purposes.

This is reflected in the report of the Cabinet of Ministers on activities in 2021.

In connection with the attempts of the Armenian side to use the Lachin corridor for military purposes, contrary to its purpose, letters were sent on behalf of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the secretaries general of the UN, OSCE, Council of Europe and NATO, the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.

As the “Maiden Tower” Telegram channel notes, “it is clear that formally all these complaints are sent in order to use it in their favor in the future with the wording “we told you so, we warned you.” But it looks as if Baku and Moscow have contradictions in the work of the Lachin corridor and Baku cannot get the Kremlin to fulfill the terms of the tripartite agreement. Let's see how events will develop further. Only one thing is clear: delaying the resolution of the issue of separatism on the territory of Azerbaijan is not in the hands of Baku. We believe in 2025."

So, how should we perceive what is happening? Is a new war being prepared? By whom? With whose "permission"? And for what purpose?

Azad Isazadeh, a military expert, a former employee of the Information and Analytical Department of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Azerbaijan, shared his opinion on this matter with the Press Klub:

- The aggravation and skirmishes can be explained by the fact that several factors have layered on top of each other. This is the conclusion of an alliance agreement with Russia. This is an announcement that in the near future, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will be ready to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, and possibly in Moscow. The third factor is the war in Ukraine. All this absolutely does not suit the military opposition of Armenia, primarily officers, generals, especially those of Karabakh origin. Now they just took advantage of the situation and exacerbate it, escalate tension. To the limit and in the hope that when the Ukrainian war ends (whether Putin will be up to it or not), it will be possible to delay the signing of the peace treaty as long as possible, provoke Azerbaijan into active actions, and resume at least some military operations. The blame for all this will be dumped on the Azerbaijani side, with the subsequent cessation of any work on a peace agreement.

As for the withdrawn column, I do not think that this is being done to replace troops in Gyumri. Firstly, there is not such a large grouping in Gyumri that could somehow influence the events on the Ukrainian front. Secondly, there are even fewer peacekeepers. That is, most likely, new conscripts, recruits will be brought to Gyumri, and more or less experienced soldiers, at least representing themselves from a military point of view, will be transferred to the Ukrainian direction. Separate, shall we say, divisions.

I don`t rule out that this may be the withdrawal of Armenian servicemen, citizens of Armenia from Karabakh. Although now we live in such an incomprehensible, illogical military-political situation, when it is very, very difficult to predict anything. We will observe and wait for further developments of the situation.

Author: Rauf Orudzhev

Translator: Gulnara Rahimova