After a meeting with Russians in Belarus on the last day of February, Podolyak, a Ukrainian envoy, said the first round of talks was over. In fact, this meant the end of the first phase of the war as a whole. Now the second round begins. It can also be called a pre-peace stage. Don't be confused by the name. I think the second stage will be more difficult than the first.

Why did the first stage take so long?

On the first day of the war, I wrote that Putin had been deceived and trapped. Some people did not like it. In vain. Putin, whose ambitions have swelled day by day and whose anger has diminished in parallel, has always been fanned by the West. By gathering weapons in Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, the Arctic, by successive military exercises, by talking about expanding NATO's borders, by first laying the North Stream-2 pipeline and then saying "no", by the "gas game", by making statements about Russia's "day of attack" on Ukraine once a week, sometimes by threatening the owner of the Kremlin, or by pretending to thank him... The situation reached the point that the President of Ukraine, Zelensky, who was eager for the United States and Europe, expressed his concern.

The last person to deceive Putin was his defense minister, Shoigu. The Minister assured the Supreme Commander-in-Chief that they would be able to reach Kiev very soon. When Putin launched the war, which he called a "special military operation," on Friday (February 24), he was confident that this will force world leaders to reconcile with the new reality, which will be launched on Monday.

Of course, I have not seen Moscow's plan to attack Kiev. But an analysis of military operations addresses this shortcoming. Russia has not applied the classic war tactics in Ukraine. Because it did not expect serious resistance. It had an aftertaste of Crimea. After the first missile strikes on strategic targets, the Russians also moved in several directions with small columns and landing groups. The Ukrainian army pulled in the broken columns from the rear, let the paratroopers into the cities, and then began to destroy them.

When Moscow woke up from shock, it was Monday, and the new reality that Putin wanted to show to the world had not yet emerged. The situation was completely different from what the Russian leader expected. The bodies of thousands of Russian soldiers were scattered in Ukrainian cities and villages, which had been severely destroyed but not captured. The attack was stifled. The information war was lost even within Russia. From abroad, the Kremlin received sanctions and threats.

Faced with this situation, Putin finally responded to Ukraine's proposal for negotiations. But this does not mean that he is withdrawing from his military intentions.

The second stage will be more painful and difficult

The Ukrainian president had repeatedly offered to negotiate with Putin before the military conflict and in the early days of the war. He complained about the Russian leader's indifference to these proposals. But suddenly the situation changed. Now Putin's envoys were sitting in Gomel waiting for Zelensky's men. Zelensky was in talks with Lukashenko, who mediated the terms and conditions of the talks. The process was so slow that even after the Ukrainian delegation arrived at the meeting place, the journalists could not resist the irony, saying that they would probably need time to sleep because they were tired on the road.

The Ukrainian side later called it "the first round of consultations" rather than negotiations, saying that so far only priority issues and possible solutions have been identified, and that the delegations should return to discuss with the leadership. The Russian side stated that the next round of talks (in Ukrainian: consultations) is expected in two days (i.e. on March 2) on the Polish-Belarusian border.

It is clear that the parties are in no hurry to make peace. Russia does not give up its claims. In the next stage, it is increasing military pressure to weaken Ukraine's position. At this stage, it is no longer a small landing group, but a major force in Ukraine, launching intensive missile strikes on cities. Satellite footage shows a Russian military convoy tens of kilometers long moving towards Kiev. Everything indicates that the next two days will be more difficult.

Ukraine's reluctance is also linked to hopes of weakening the opposing side. Every day of the war intensifies protests in Russia, has a detrimental effect on the fighting spirit of the Russian army, and on the other hand strengthens sanctions against Moscow. Even if Putin achieves his goal and defeats Ukraine, it seems less and less convincing that his regime will withstand such giant sanctions.

A big war needs big money

Called the largest war in Europe since World War II, it is fantastically costly for both the aggressor and the defender. Kyiv can count on strong material and technical support from the West. Moscow, on the other hand, is one of the countries that seeks help from itself, and its resources are rapidly depleting. The United States and the European Union have decided to deprive Russia of 65% of its 644 billion gold and foreign exchange reserves before the war. We do not add the economic blows inflicted on it in other forms. What was Putin's response to the extremely difficult situation? He hastily issued a decree "On special economic measures in connection with the unfriendly actions of the United States and its allies, foreign states and international organizations." In fact, the decree is directed against Russia's own entities, requiring them to sell 80% of their foreign exchange earnings to the state within three days. The big question is how effective this mechanism will be. After all, the sanctions apply not only to the Russian state, but also to its main economic and non-economic entities. But let's put the questions aside. It should be noted that in the last years of the USSR, the government took the same measures to save the collapsed economy of the empire. The result is clear.

The battle of two short stature commanders

The "Ukrainian comedian" joked about in the Kremlin shows a resistance that many do not expect from him. The war in Ukraine is no longer seen as the result of a confrontation between the West and Russia over control of the world, but as a life-and-death battle for the country's future. If there were no Zelensky’s tenacity in the face of Putin’s stubbornness, the West would not be so resolute in defending Ukraine today. There is enough evidence for what we have said in recent history. The world is changing really fast. Principles and concepts are beginning to take on a completely different meaning. We talked about the fact that the international community provides all kinds of material and technical support to Ukraine. But help does not end there. Legionnaires from abroad also gather in Kiev to fight against Russia. Only a year and a half ago, during the Karabakh war, European countries were looking for foreigners who fought in the Azerbaijani army, and they strongly condemned the Turks for helping us. Now they not only do not object to their citizens going to Ukraine to fight, but also change their laws to encourage them. We used to call it a "double standard". But this is no longer a double standard, but a change of standards.

Translator: Gulnara Rahimova