The other day, Azerbaijan signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, which spelled out the intention of the parties to build a corridor to Nakhchivan not through the Armenian Zangezur (Syunik), but through the adjacent territory of Iran, along the southern bank of the border river Araz (Araks). The document was signed quite unexpectedly and caused a lot of questions from the Azerbaijani public. As testament, the numerous media publications emerged on this topic in recent days.

Meanwhile, many remember that some time after the 44-day war, it was Iran that was the first to make such a proposal - they say, why spend huge amounts of money and time on restoring the Soviet transport infrastructure through Zangezur, if a highway has been successfully operating in Iran for a long time, connecting the main part of Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan, it is only necessary to lay a railway line to Julfa parallel to it and build appropriate connecting bridges (road and railway) in the liberated territories across the Araz.

Azerbaijan did not respond to this, and suddenly the other day we learned about the signing of a memorandum just on this topic. What could be the reason for such a step by Baku?

Here it is worth recalling one relatively recent speech by the head of Azerbaijan. It was in mid-December, during the visit of Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan to Brussels for the Eastern Partnership summit. There, at the suggestion of Charles Michel, the head of the European Council, separate negotiations were held between them. In addition, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan held a meeting in Brussels with Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, and at their joint press conference that followed, he made a very remarkable statement. He said that Baku does not agree with the current state of affairs in terms of post-war transport links in the region. He explained that there is an operating Lachin corridor through the territory of Azerbaijan, at the entrance to which Armenian citizens do not undergo either border or customs inspection by the relevant Azerbaijani services. They are checked only by the Russian military, but this happens without the control of Baku. And there is a road planned for restoration through Zangezur to Nakhchivan, which Yerevan wants to use not with the same special status that the Lachin corridor actually has (this was Azerbaijan's proposal), but as its own full-fledged auto and railway route - with its own border posts and customs points at the entrance and exit from the territory of Armenia.

In this case, Aliyev continued, Azerbaijan would also establish a border post and customs at the entrance to the Lachin corridor (however, he did not explain whether Russian “peacekeepers” would allow Azerbaijan to do this at all). In general, the choice is up to Armenia, the president concluded.

Some time after that, the Armenian side announced that it was already starting the practical part of the restoration work on the transport sections in Syunik, some figures were announced, immediate plans were outlined, and based on this, there was a feeling that Baku and Yerevan were already close to some kind of agreement on the status of "corridors". But then the Kremlin's aggression against Ukraine broke out and the cards in our region were mixed up again.

So, today, unexpectedly for everyone, Azerbaijan has signed a memorandum with Iran. But the memorandum is not yet an agreement with clear obligations of the parties, it can be revised or canceled altogether. So maybe this is some kind of hint towards Armenia? Like, we can do it anyway - we will open the Iranian section and get a road to Nakhchivan and further to Turkey. But in this case, you are left without land access to Russia through Azerbaijan. Like, change your mind and agree to our option.

Arastun Orujlu, political scientist, director of the East-West Research Center told the Press Klub about his vision of these processes:

- The memorandum signed in Baku, I think, is more designed to connect Iran to the East-West transport and communication corridor, which will run from China through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, to Turkey and beyond. This is a matter of diversification, because all such important corridors always run the risk of ending up in some kind of conflict zone, in difficult geopolitical conditions. That is, I do not think that this is some kind of agreement only between Azerbaijan and Iran.

This is beneficial for Azerbaijan in the sense that, firstly, the flow of goods through this Iranian corridor (let's call it that way) will increase. On the other hand, and I think this is more important, Azerbaijan needs such a project to achieve the loyalty of the Islamic Republic on the issue of the Zangezur corridor. And all this is due to the new geopolitical reality that has developed after Russia's attack on Ukraine.

Armenia has been bluffing all the time about the Zangezur corridor. They do not want it to open in any way, but even if it were to open, it would be only under their full control, which Russia cannot allow, because it needs it most of all. More precisely, DID need it when the well-known Tripartite Statement was signed.

I think that the Zangezur corridor will still be opened, one way or another, but under whose control it will be - this is the question. And very serious. Because the positions of Russia, including in our region, have greatly weakened after what happened. Now Moscow has no time for other regions, because it suffers heavy losses in Ukraine. And this is a chance to open the Zangezur corridor, which, unlike the Iranian corridor, is very important for Azerbaijan and especially for Turkey. It will connect two countries.

It should be taken into account that all these realities are formed around the East-West corridor, which will connect China with Europe. The Zangezur corridor is only a small part of it. However, not only Azerbaijan and Turkey, but a lot of countries are interested in its opening. If Iran is connected to it, it will get new opportunities for cooperation with Europe. Iran is now very carefully moving away from Russia. A very large geopolitical issue is being developed, and everyone is interested in this. And if Azerbaijan tries to open the Zangezur corridor even in an unconventional way (let`s say, by force), I will not be surprised, because everyone - Europe, Turkey, China, Kazakhstan, and now Iran - is interested in this.

On the other hand, this may also be a hint of Azerbaijan to Armenia. Because Armenia is already isolated geopolitically and geographically, and if Azerbaijan starts working only through the Iranian corridor, then there may not be a need for the Zangezur corridor. For now, Armenia has a way through Georgia to Russia, but I think soon it will have to make a choice on which side of the barricades it is on.

Author: Rauf Orudzhev

Translator: Gulnara Rahimova