Opening up ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey could lead to significant changes for Armenia in the South Caucasus. After a long blockade that led to the creation of bypass routes for oil, gas and railway routes, Armenia has an opportunity to become a communications hub in the region. This opinion was expressed by Armenian and Azerbaijani experts during an online discussion on CivilNet, organised in cooperation with the Yerevan and Baku Press Clubs.

Boris Navasardian, Honorary President of the Yerevan Press Club, and Sabit Bagirov from Baku, Chairman of the Foundation for Promotion of Entrepreneurship and Market Economy, discussed the reasons why Armenia and Azerbaijan have not yet started opening transport links and why, according to some experts, the Peace Crossroads project may be more important than even signing a peace agreement.

Experts generally agreed that it is in the interests of Armenia and Azerbaijan to revive all transport and economic ties in the region, which were abandoned and lost their functionality after the collapse of the USSR.

Reasons for stalling

After the second Karabakh war in December 2020, Yerevan and Baku started negotiations to unblock transport routes, which was considered an important part of the peace agreement. But no significant progress was made on this issue.

The main problem was the attempt to rehabilitate railway and motorways through southern Armenia, which would have connected "mainland" Azerbaijan with its Nakhichevan autonomy. Azerbaijan insisted that these roads should have a status similar to the "Lachin Corridor", while Armenia categorically rejected this.

"The theme of extraterritoriality has significantly hindered Yerevan and Baku from proceeding to open communications. It is largely embedded in the trilateral statement of 9 November 2020, which suggests that the control of the road should be exercised by the Russian FSB border troops. This is exactly the point that is unacceptable for the Armenian side today. Moreover, it is senseless to talk about the fulfilment of other points of this statement," Boris Navasardyan noted.

Meanwhile, after Azerbaijan established control over Nagorno-Karabakh, the interest of the Azerbaijani authorities in transit through Armenia has noticeably decreased. Baku reached an agreement with Iran to build a railway through the northern part of that country to connect Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan exclave.

Around the same time, Armenia proposed its own project to unblock transport communications called "Crossroads of the World", offering to revive all transport and economic links in the region from north to south, west to east.

"The key point of this project is to develop communications between Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and the Islamic Republic of Iran through the rehabilitation, construction and operation of roads, railways, pipelines, cables, power lines," Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said during the presentation of the Peace Crossroads project at the Silk Road International Forum in Tbilisi on 26 October.

At the same time, Pashinyan emphasised the principled position of the Armenian side on the inadmissibility of any extraterritoriality: "All infrastructure, including roads, railways, air routes, pipelines, cables, power lines, operate under the sovereignty and jurisdiction of the countries through which they pass".

Glimmers of hope

The Armenian "Crossroads of the World" project, as Sabit Bagirov notes, has given rise to some hopes that Armenia is ready to demonstrate a serious approach to creating a transport hub in the South Caucasus. "I think this is very important and will work in favour of not only economic development, but also cultural exchange in the region between people," the expert said.

Although Sabit Bagirov is not familiar with Baku's official position on the Armenian project, but judging by the reaction in the local press, he believes that Azerbaijan has an interest in its implementation. "This project involves the opening of three checkpoints on the border with Azerbaijan and two with Turkey from the Armenian side, which is very serious. This will contribute to the increase of cargo traffic and economic development of both countries," Bagirov emphasised.

According to Boris Navasardyan, unblocking of communications is more important in practice than signing a peace agreement itself in stabilising the situation in the region and reducing the level of conflict, as it leads to increased interdependence and the emergence of common interests. Although, of course, it does not cancel the necessity of a political document that enshrines the normalisation of interstate relations.

"This may become an incentive for neither party to be tempted to resolve any issues through the use of force in the future. The joint use of transport communications in itself opens up prospects for far-reaching programmes of strategic development of the region's economy as a whole," Boris Navasardyan believes. He attaches special importance to the efforts aimed at attracting foreign investments for the realisation of these communication projects, which contribute to increasing the importance of the South Caucasus in the system of international trade.

"I think the interest will be high from very many countries. After all, despite geopolitical contradictions, even Russia may see its interest here regardless of the status of its border troops, which today is almost the main obstacle to universal consensus," the expert concluded.