There are two major interrelated threats to the implementation of the agreement reached by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Brussels on April 6, mediated by Charles Michel, the President of the European Council:

- Russia does not want the West to become more active in resolving the conflict, to change the status quo in the region;

- The Armenian opposition has begun to mobilize its resources to sabotage the government's foreign policy. In this regard, the Russian authorities and part of the Armenian lobby in the West support them.

Post-war experience shows that agreements are very difficult to implement. It was not possible to soften the antagonistic positions of the parties (the trilateral statements of November 10, January 11, November 26 were not fully implemented). Russia, the moderator of the process, is not interested in easing tensions, but in spreading the conflict along the borders of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Moscow is trying to be a key mediator in all issues between the two countries, especially in the process of Armenian-Turkish rapprochement. The Kremlin leadership is interested in maintaining the status quo in its own interests, keeping in hand all the important components for the start of peace in the region.

This situation does not satisfy either Armenia or Azerbaijan. The West, taking advantage of this and the favorable geopolitical situation, is trying to find common ground by bringing the parties to the conflict together. The initial formula proposed in Brussels coincides with the five-point basic principles put forward by Azerbaijan for peace. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, speaking from objective realities, tries to explain to the Armenian society that there are no other alternatives. Recently, he noted that the result of the rejection of Western proposals is the cause of Azerbaijan`s control over Mount Farrukh and the possibility of similar steps in the future. Pashinyan understands that while there is a demoralization in the crisis in Ukraine by the occupying Russia, Armenia will not be able to prolong the current uncertainty. On a new level, Western international law is based on Turkey's growing influence in the region. Thus, the West offers Armenia to take something from Azerbaijan on Karabakh without delay. Of course, we are not talking about an utopia like independence, but guarantees for the security of Armenians.

In this sensitive situation, Russia's former political elite in Armenia is trying to turn society against the government and disrupt the process moderated by the West. Moscow is circulating their theses and doing its best to turn the mood of confrontation into the next political crisis.

Sergei Kopirkin, Russia's ambassador to Yerevan, told 24news.am today that the West is destroying international mechanisms and platforms that serve to strengthen stability and security in various parts of the world for the sake of its ambitions. "This approach is, of course, a pity. Unfortunately, the interests of peace and security, in this case, are sacrificed to the geopolitical and other ambitions of the countries of the region, especially Armenia," the ambassador said.

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) said that the first steps out of the situation are the resignation of the current Armenian government and the replacement of the negotiator.

Apparently, the ambassador's statement coincides with the main theses of the statements of the Armenian opposition. Thus, the threat of an internal political crisis in Armenia and the non-implementation of the Brussels agreements remains relevant.

Ilham Ismayil, security expert, recalled that after the meeting in Brussels and after Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said he would sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, provocations and various events ranging from Pashinyan's ouster to assassination were predicted. According to him, it is possible that political forces of opposition, or even another state, are behind the statement of  Dashnaks, who have declared terrorism the main principle of action since the inception, to remove Pashinyan:

"Such statements have been made for several days by all political forces and members of the media who oppose the Pashinyan government. David Shahnazaryan, the former head of the Armenian special services, stressed that the removal of the current government from power was an "all-Armenian task" and said that "the government must be overthrown by all political means." Stressing that time is running out around Armenia to achieve this goal, Shahnazaryan said he believes a new movement will soon emerge."

According to the expert, the issue in Armenia has already passed the stage of simply criticizing and protesting the government's position: "The calls have one goal: the Pashinyan government must be overthrown. The politicians are linking all their analysis to Russia, threatening the society that if a peace agreement is signed and Azerbaijan's territorial integrity is recognized, not a single Armenian will remain in Karabakh, and as a result, Russia will leave Karabakh, and then Armenia. Moreover, they say that Pashinyan is controlled by the West, that the European Union is actively interfering in these processes, and that they are trying to put Russia in a bad position by "opening a second front" in many regions of Russian interest, including Karabakh, during the Ukraine war. Of course, Russia does not need to incite Armenian politicians. Because it knows well what and how affects its interests, and how the Armenians want to benefit from here. On the contrary, there is no doubt that Russia will manage and direct this noise. Russia spreads the idea of "new threat, new war, new losses, new victims and new capitulation" in the language of Armenians. It intimidates and threatens them. Russia's influence does not end there. Some Armenian political experts say that the current situation is difficult, and they see the restoration of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region as part of Azerbaijan as a way "in order not to lose Artsakh completely”.”

I. Ismayil added that the Dashnaks appealed not only to Russia, but also to international organizations, and did not consider Pashinyan's oral and written commitment and signature for the transfer of Karabakh to Azerbaijan to be legitimate:

"Not only Armenian politicians, but also the separatist regime in Khankendi oppose Pashinyan's statements on the peace agreement, and consider it unacceptable for the international community to demand "lowering the status of Karabakh." On behalf of the so-called parliament, they appealed to the leadership of the Russian Federation to "not give anyone a reason for the future security of the Artsakh people." It is clear that when they say "anyone", they mean Pashinyan in the first place. They also called on the leadership of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs to take action, regardless of disagreements over events in Ukraine".

The security expert says that although the separatists have stated that they are ready for both political and military struggle, and that they will fight for Armenia and all Armenians at the same time, they are well aware that this slogan is not realistic."Will Moscow need such an unrealistic slogan to pave the way for future provocations? Moscow made no secret of its outrage after the April 6 meeting in Brussels, taught Ararat Mirzoyan a lesson on April 8, and now summoned Pashinyan to the Kremlin on the 19th. It is already clear that this meeting will not be successful. It will not be hidden for a long time what "path" the tsar, outraged by the situation in Ukraine, will show to Nikol Pashinyan. When Armenia's first president, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, announced the need for a peace treaty with Azerbaijan in September 1997, he was summoned to Yeltsin's residence in Novo-Ogaryovo and forced to resign. Two months later, Armenia's first president resigned, and two months later Kocharyan became president. Can such a fate await Nikol Pashinyan? If nothing is achieved, it is possible that an assassination attempt, such as the October 27, 1999 parliamentary massacre, will take place. Note that the terrorist organization Dashnaktsutyun has issued a statement that the only way out is to dismiss the government. One of the methods is to eliminate undesirable figures through terrorism," the expert said.

According to him, normal logic and the current situation show that this will not be the case. The expert added that Pashinyan will not go to Moscow empty-handed, but in the "advisory dress" of the West, and when he returns, it will be known how "loose" the dress is: "The peace agreement will not be abandoned, it will simply be exaggerated that Moscow is the architect of this work, and it is likely that the time will still remain uncertain. Karabakh policy is entering a new stage with new details. Taking into account all the options, there is no doubt that Azerbaijan will succeed in this stage as well".

Author: Turqut

Translator: Gulnara Rahimova